TL;DR

The GoO market remains essential for European renewable compliance, driven by intensifying EU regulation (RED II/III, CSRD) and corporate ESG goals.

• Price dynamics: The overall market is experiencing a state of oversupply due to significant renewable capacity coming online and high hydro/wind output in early 2025. This is causing downward pressure on prices, with some nearing or falling below €1/MWh.
• Key trends:
  • Price divergence: Regional differences persist; countries with strong output and efficient registries (like Norway, Sweden, Germany) see oversupply, while others with slow capacity growth or administrative bottlenecks maintain premiums.
  • Growing stability: The rise of Corporate PPAs creates stable, long-term demand for bundled GoOs, which should help make the market more predictable.
  • Digitalisation: Digital trading platforms are increasing price discovery and transparency, which is expected to reduce volatility and improve market efficiency over the long term.

For market participants, tracking these regional and regulatory shifts is crucial for strategic decision-making.

In 2025, the Guarantees of Origin (GoO) market remains a cornerstone of the European energy‑transition framework, providing the proof that electricity consumed comes from renewable sources. As regulators press harder on climate goals and corporations deepen their renewable energy commitments, the role and value of GoOs in energy markets continues to strengthen. Prices continue to respond to shifts in regulation, supply and demand imbalances, and market structure changes.

This article examines the key trends currently shaping the GoO market, explores what is influencing price volatility, and offers a view on where things might head in the near future. For traders, renewable power producers, and corporate energy buyers, staying updated on these trends is vital to making strategic decisions.

A snapshot of the GoO landscape in 2025

• Regulatory pressure is increasing. EU directives, such as RED II and its evolving implementation, Green Deal objectives, and sustainability reporting requirements, are pushing member states and corporations toward higher renewable energy targets. Companies are more frequently integrating GoOs (either bundled with generation or via unbundled certificates) into their procurement strategies.
• Growth in renewable capacity, but with constraints. Wind and solar continue to expand in many European countries. However, growth is uneven. Grid capacity, permitting delays, and supply chain constraints (for panels, turbines, etc.) mean that in many regions renewable generation has not kept pace with demand for clean electricity or the certificates attached.
• Fragmented market practices persist. Differences among countries in how GoOs are issued, registered, qualified (which technologies count, whether the electricity is additional, etc.), and tradability continue to lead to significant regional price divergence. Market liquidity and transparency vary widely.

What’s driving GoO prices in 2025?

A. Supply and demand dynamics

Demand for GoOs remains strong, driven by corporate sustainability goals, regulatory compliance (e.g. CSRD), and voluntary green energy commitments. Long-term PPAs and ESG-aligned strategies are encouraging consistent demand for both bundled and unbundled GoOs.

However, the market in 2025 appears to be in a state of oversupply. Significant renewable energy capacity has come online over the past few years, and improvements in issuance and registry processes have increased the volume of GoOs available. In particular, high hydro output in early 2025 and solid wind generation across Northern and Western Europe have added to supply.

This has led to downward pressure on prices, especially in regions with efficient infrastructure and high renewable penetration. In several markets, GoO prices are now trending closer to €1/MWh, with some even dipping below that threshold during periods of high generation.

That said, price divergence still exists. Markets with administrative bottlenecks or stricter quality requirements continue to see premiums, though the overall trend leans toward oversupply rather than scarcity.

B. Regulations pushing demand up

EU policy continues to tighten. RED II/III, national renewable targets, and the EU Green Deal are pushing standardisation and stricter GoO criteria, such as additionality, temporal matching, and locational relevance. These changes could gradually reduce eligible supply over time, but in the near term, issuance volumes remain high and contribute to the oversupplied market conditions.

Sustainability reporting frameworks like CSRD are creating a baseline of formal, stable demand, particularly among large corporates and financial actors. While this supports prices, it has not been sufficient to offset the increase in supply across many markets.

Bundled PPAs also continue to grow. While they remove some GoOs from the open market, this effect is currently not enough to rebalance supply and demand in a meaningful way.

C. Regional differences matter

Supply imbalances still exist but are less pronounced than in previous years. Countries like Norway, Sweden, and Germany,  with strong renewable output and efficient registry systems, continue to experience notable oversupply, which keeps prices low.

In contrast, some Southern and Eastern European markets, where renewable capacity growth is slower and administrative processes lag, still face tighter conditions. These regional frictions can create short-term scarcity, but they are exceptions within a generally oversupplied market.

Administrative delays and registry fragmentation can still create artificial bottlenecks, yet improvements in digitalisation and standardisation are gradually mitigating these effects.

What does the future hold for GoO prices?

A. Increased price volatility

In 2025, we’re seeing more price volatility than in previous years. As the market becomes more active and the demand for renewable energy grows, there’s a real possibility of short-term price fluctuations, especially during periods of regulatory change or extreme weather events that affect renewable generation. Some periods will likely see spikes in prices, while others may see prices stabilize.

B. Digitalisation and transparency

One of the biggest game-changers in the GoO market is the rise of digital trading platforms. Companies like enmacc are leading the way by making GoO trading faster, more transparent, and more accessible. This digital shift is helping to improve price discovery and make the GoO market more efficient overall. As the market matures, we’re likely to see even more adoption of these platforms, which could bring greater price stability and reduce volatility over the long term.

C. Corporate PPAs as a growing trend

Corporate PPAs are becoming an increasingly popular way for large companies to secure renewable energy and, by extension, GoOs. This trend is expected to continue growing in 2025, and as more companies lock in long-term contracts, the GoO market will become more predictable.

These PPAs not only guarantee the energy prices for companies but also create a stable demand for GoOs, as each renewable energy purchase typically comes with a bundled GoO. This trend is especially important in countries like Germany, where companies are increasingly looking for ways to source green energy directly from producers.

What does this mean for traders and energy buyers? 

So, what does this all mean for you? Whether you’re a trader looking to capitalise on market fluctuations or a corporate energy buyer forecasting your sustainability goals, it’s crucial to understand the factors driving GoO prices in 2025. The fragmented nature of the GoO market means there’s a need for flexibility and adaptability, especially as more digital platforms emerge to streamline the buying and selling process.

By keeping a close eye on regional trends, regulatory shifts, and the growing demand for corporate sustainability, you’ll be better positioned to make informed decisions and stay ahead of the competition.

The GoO market in 2025 is an interesting space to watch, with significant shifts in pricing dynamics, regional supply-demand balances, and new digital innovations transforming the way GoOs are traded. While some volatility is inevitable, the market is maturing and offering new opportunities for traders and corporate buyers alike.

For those navigating the GoO space, staying informed and understanding the drivers behind these price fluctuations will be crucial in making the right moves in the years ahead.